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Marin Real Estate Update – Q4 2011
The Big Picture:
Comparing prices at the end of 2011 to those of a year ago, single family homes are down 4% and condos are down 5% -- good news for buyers; bad news for sellers. The only significant exceptions were San Rafael, where prices for single family homes were up 6% and condos were up 17% along with the condo market in Novato, up 5%.
The hardest hit was Belvedere/Tiburon, with prices down 20% from a year ago and down 10% from the previous quarter, well below the $2 million. The most improved was the condo market in central and northern Marin, where prices either held steady or rose from the previous quarter.
Prices:
The median price of a single family home in Marin in Q4 was $733,500, down 4% from a year ago and down 5% from the previous quarter. The median price for a condo was $322,000, down 5% from a year ago but up 6% from the previous quarter. When compared with Q3, however, all but 3 of the submarkets showed gains, as can be seen below:
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Single Family Homes |
|
Year
Change |
Qtr
Change |
|
|
Year
Change |
Qtr
Change |
|
Belvedere/Tiburon |
$1,625,175 |
-20% |
-10% |
Novato |
$503,500 |
-12% |
-8% |
|
CM/Greenbrae/Larkspur |
872,100 |
-5% |
1% |
San Anselmo |
725,000 |
-9% |
3% |
|
Fairfax/San Geronimo* |
510,000 |
-11% |
-8% |
San Rafael |
655,000 |
6% |
-3% |
|
Kentfield/Ross* |
1,640,000 |
1% |
24% |
Sausalito* |
1,375,000 |
-7% |
12% |
|
Mill Valley |
960,000 |
-7% |
2% |
All Marin |
$733,500 |
-4% |
-5% |
|
Condos/Townhomes |
|
Year
Change |
Qtr
Change |
|
|
Year
Change |
Qtr
Change |
|
Tiburon/Mill Valley* |
$568,000 |
-1% |
-1% |
San Rafael |
$322,000 |
17% |
7% |
|
CM/Greenbrae/Larkspur* |
372,000 |
-22% |
7% |
Sausalito* |
375,000 |
-17% |
-29% |
|
Novato |
240,000 |
5% |
0% |
All Marin |
$322,000 |
-5% |
6% |
Statistics from BAREIS MLS, deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
* Less than 25 homes have sold this quarter for this area, so these statistics are less reliable than those for other markets.
Inventory and Time on Market
As of January 9, 2011, there were 556 residential properties on the market in Marin, down from 915 homes the previous quarter. This drop in inventory, is typical for the 4th quarter holiday season. Of the properties listed for sale, 150, or 27% are distress sales (bank-owned, short sales, etc.), up from 19% last quarter. The median time it takes to sell has increased from 65 days on market to 72, but the current inventory has dropped from 4 months to 3 months.
Buyers or Sellers Market?
It’s generally considered a Buyers Market when less than 25% of listings are in escrow, a Balanced Market when 25-40% are in escrow, and a Sellers Market when more than 40% are in escrow. By this measure,
Ø It remains a Sellers Market for homes priced less than $500,000, with 53% of the for-sale homes in escrow.
Ø It has shifted, but just barely, from a Balanced Market to a Sellers Market for homes priced between $500,000 - $1,000,000 (41% are in escrow).
Ø And it remains a Buyers Market for homes priced more than $1,000,000 (only 18% are in escrow).
For more information, visit our web site at www.MarinRealtyExperts.com.
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Peter R. Nielsen
415-299-0487 |
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