Marin Real Estate Update – Q1 2010

The Big Picture:

The first quarter of 2010 may mark the turnaround in the Marin County real estate market. This is the first quarter since Q2-2007 when both single family homes and condos registered price increases, both over the previous quarter and when compared to the same quarter in the previous year. The turnaround has not been uniform, though. Single family homes in Novato declined further, as did homes in Belvedere/Tiburon.  The price of condos surged in San Rafael, up 69% from a year ago, when they hit bottom at a median price of just $198,000. The volume of sales appears to be picking up as well, with 451 sales in Q1 compared to only 314 in the first quarter of 2009. Inventory has risen from a 3-month supply to a 6 month supply, reflecting a typical post-holiday seasonal increase. It remains a “Sellers Market” at the low end, ‘Balanced’ in the mid-range and a “Buyers Market” at the high end. Homes are selling at an average of 97% of the list price.

Prices:

The median price for a single family home in Marin in Q1 was $775,000, up 9% from the same quarter a year ago and up 3% from the previous quarter. The median price for a condo was $363,000, up a 40% from the same quarter a year ago and up 7% from the previous quarter. The Q1 median price by area and the percent change from the same period in 2009 and from the previous quarter (Q4-2009) is shown below:

Statistics from BAREIS MLS, deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

* Less than 25 homes have sold this quarter for this area, so these statistics are less reliable than those for other markets.

Inventory and Time on Market

As of April 6, 2010, there were 940 residential properties on the market in Marin, up from the same quarter last year when there were 783 homes on the market. Of these, 15% are distress sales (bank-owned, short sales, etc.) The median time it takes to sell has dropped from 76 days on market to 73. With only 451 homes having sold this quarter, the time it would take to sell the current inventory has increased from 3 months to 6 months, which is a good sign for buyers.

Buyers or Sellers Market?
It’s generally considered a Buyers Market when less than 25% of listings are in escrow, a Balanced Market when 25-40% are in escrow, and a Sellers Market when more than 40% are in escrow.  By this measure,

Ø      It remains a Sellers Market for homes priced less than $500,000 (52% are in escrow).

Ø      It remains a Balanced Market for homes priced between $500,000 - $1,000,000 (33% are in escrow).

Ø      And it remains a Buyers Market for homes priced more than $1,000,000 (only 19% are in escrow).

For more information, visit our web site at www.MarinRealtyExperts.com.