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Marin Real Estate Update – Q4 2010
The Big Picture:
Comparing prices at the end of 2010 to those of a year ago, it appears that the market in Marin has stabilized, with single family homes up 2% from a year ago, and condos down just 1%. When looking at sub-markets within the county, though, the results are uneven, with single family home prices down 10% in San Rafael, for example, but up 16% in Mill Valley. Similar differences can be seen in the condo market.
The most significant, and ominous, development, is that currently, a full 40% of the homes on the market are distress sales – bank-owned, short sales or in some stage of foreclosure. And, in the under $500,000 segment of the market, there are now only 76 homes available for purchase. This has had the effect of causing a shift in this segment from being a Balanced Market to now being a Sellers Market. Homes continue to sell at an average of 97% of the list price.
Prices:
The median price of a single family home in Marin in Q4 was $767,500, up 2% from the same quarter a year ago but down 3% from the previous quarter. The median price for a condo was $338,000, down 1% from a year ago and down 3% from the previous quarter. The Q4 median price by area and the percent change from the same period in 2009 and from the previous quarter (Q3-2010) is shown below:
|
Single Family Homes |
|
Year
Change |
Qtr
Change |
|
|
Year
Change |
Qtr
Change |
|
Belvedere/Tiburon |
$2,025,000 |
-16% |
-8% |
Novato |
$574,500 |
-1% |
-10% |
|
CM/Greenbrae/Larkspur |
918,500 |
-11% |
-6% |
San Anselmo |
799,000 |
1% |
10% |
|
Fairfax/San Geronimo |
575,000 |
0% |
4% |
San Rafael |
620,000 |
-10% |
-13% |
|
Kentfield/Ross* |
1,625,000 |
0% |
-8% |
Sausalito* |
1,481,000 |
14% |
35% |
|
Mill Valley |
1,029,000 |
16% |
10% |
All Marin |
$767,500 |
2% |
-3% |
|
Condos/Townhomes |
|
Year
Change |
Qtr
Change |
|
|
Year
Change |
Qtr
Change |
|
Tiburon/Mill Valley* |
$575,000 |
21% |
11% |
San Rafael |
$275,000 |
-4% |
-10% |
|
CM/Greenbrae/Larkspur* |
475,000 |
1% |
30% |
Sausalito* |
465,000 |
0% |
-29% |
|
Novato |
229,000 |
-15% |
-7% |
All Marin |
$338,000 |
-1% |
-3% |
Statistics from BAREIS MLS, deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
* Less than 25 homes have sold this quarter for this area, so these statistics are less reliable than those for other markets.
Inventory and Time on Market
As of January 12, 2011, there were 537 residential properties on the market in Marin, down from 1201 homes the previous quarter. Of these, 40% are distress sales (bank-owned, short sales, etc.), up from 19% last quarter. The median time it takes to sell has increased from 51 days on market to 77. With 564 homes having sold this quarter, the time it would take to sell the current inventory has dropped from 6 months to 3 months. This slow-down in sales, though, is typical for the 4th quarter holiday season.
Buyers or Sellers Market?
It’s generally considered a Buyers Market when less than 25% of listings are in escrow, a Balanced Market when 25-40% are in escrow, and a Sellers Market when more than 40% are in escrow. By this measure,
Ø It has shifted from a Balanced Market to a Sellers Market for homes priced less than $500,000, with 67% of the for-sale homes in escrow.
Ø It remains a Balanced Market for homes priced between $500,000 - $1,000,000 (32% are in escrow).
Ø And it remains a Buyers Market for homes priced more than $1,000,000 (only 17% are in escrow).
For more information, visit our web site at www.MarinRealtyExperts.com.
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Peter R. Nielsen
415-299-0487 |
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