Marin Real Estate Update – Q1 2009

The Big Picture:

The downward pressure on prices continued in the first quarter of 2009, as the recession deepened. As was reported at the end of 2008, there has been a significant shift in the make-up of sales, with 20% fewer single family homes sold vs the same quarter in 2008, but a 25% increase in the number of condos sold. This has the effect of lowering the median price for a home in Marin, exaggerating the decline for single family homes and understating it for condos.  Short sales (where more is owed than the home is worth) and foreclosures continue to add downward pressure, as do the tighter restrictions on lending. At the beginning of April there were 163 “distressed” properties listed on the MLS, which has remained a steady number since the beginning of the year.  There is a significant “shadow inventory” of homes, however that are in some stage of foreclosure that are not yet on the market, or are being held off the market by the banks that now own them. The main driver of the market in the first quarter has been first time buyers and investors, who are taking advantage of the current window of opportunity to purchase property in Marin at significantly reduced prices and previously unheard of low interest rates.

Prices:

The median price for a single family residence in Marin in Q1-2009 was $712,995, down 25% from the same quarter a year ago and down 11% from the previous quarter. The median price for a condo was $260,000, down 46% from the same quarter a year ago and down 17% from the previous quarter. A more accurate reading is that for each area, within which home values are more comparable. The Q1 median price by area and the percent change from the same period in 2008 and from the previous quarter (Q4-2008) is shown below:

Statistics from BAREIS MLS, deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

Inventory and Time on Market

As of April 1, 2009, there were 1,053 residential properties on the market in Marin, up from the same quarter last year when there were 1,007 homes on the market. The time it takes to sell has remained steady with a median number of days on market of 80. With only a little over 100 homes having sold each month this quarter, the time it would take to sell the current “inventory” has jumped to 10 months.

Buyers or Sellers Market?
It’s generally considered a Buyers Market when less than 25% of listings are in escrow, a Balanced Market when 25-40% are in escrow, and a Sellers Market when more than 40% are in escrow.  By this measure,

Ø     It remains a Balanced Market for homes priced less than $750,000 (36% are in escrow).

Ø     It remains a Buyer’s Market for homes priced between $750,000 - $1,750,000 (15% are in escrow).

Ø     And it remains a Buyer’s Market for homes priced more than $1,750,000 (only 8% are in escrow).

For more information, visit our web site at www.MarinRealtyExperts.com.