Marin Real Estate Update – Q4 2008

The Big Picture:

Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock in 2008, you already know that the deflation in housing prices finally hit Marin in a significant way, and that the phenomenon of “short sales” (where more is owed than the home is worth) and foreclosures have become news here as well. The biggest change from a year ago is that in 2007, condo sales were about ¼ of home sales in Marin whereas in Q4 (Oct-Dec) half of all sales were condos. That’s because there has effectively been a half-price sale on condos in central San Rafael and in parts of Novato. This has drawn first time buyers and investors into the market, who know that this is a window of opportunity for those with a small down payment and good credit. Many of these are being purchased with FHA loans that require only 3.5% down payment.

Prices:

The median price for a single family residence in Marin in Q4-2008 was $800,375, down 19% from the same quarter a year ago and down 11% from the previous quarter. The median price for a condo was $315,000, down 43% from the same quarter a year ago and down 19% from the previous quarter. In both cases, the county-wide drop in prices is overstated, since the drop is due in part to a much larger number of sales in the lower price range, which brings the median down. A more accurate reading is that for each area, within which home values are more comparable. The Q4 median price by area and the percent change from the same period in 2007 and from the previous quarter (Q3-2008) is shown below:

Statistics from BAREIS MLS, deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

Inventory and Time on Market

As of January 15, 2009, there were 783 residential properties on the market in Marin, up from the same quarter last year when there were only 646 homes on the market. Homes have been taking considerably longer to sell, with a median number of days on market of 80, up from 53 days during the same quarter a year ago. The time it would take to sell the current “inventory” remains at 5 months.

Buyers or Sellers Market?
It’s generally considered a Buyers Market when less than 25% of listings are in escrow, a Balanced Market when 25-40% are in escrow, and a Sellers Market when more than 40% are in escrow.  By this measure,

Ø     It remains a Balanced Market for homes priced less than $750,000 (30% are in escrow).

Ø     It remains a Buyer’s Market for homes priced between $750,000 - $1,750,000 (13% are in escrow).

Ø     And it remains a Buyer’s Market for homes priced more than $1,750,000 (only 7% are in escrow).

For more information, visit our web site at www.MarinRealtyExperts.com.
If you would like a FREE list of bank-owned homes, an analysis of the value of your home, to learn how to save on taxes or any other information about the real estate market in Marin, give us a call!